Television’s share of global ad spend has ‘stabilised’ after three decades of steady growth, say ZenithOptimedia. TV accounted for 31% of spend in 1980, 32% in 1990, 36% in 2000 and 39% in 2010. Now the media agency say they expect TV to fall back slightly, from 40.2% in 2012 to 40.0% in 2015. However, sight, sound and motion are going nowhere — it’s just a question of how the content is delivered. The growth of online video means that video formats overall (TV plus online video) will continue to increase their share of global spend, from 41.5% in 2010 to 42.6% in 2015.
ZenithOptimedia say total global ad expenditure will grow 4.1% in 2013, reaching US$518 billion by the end of the year. This growth will be continue to be led by developing markets, as has been the case since the financial crisis in 2007, which are forecast to grow by 8% on average in 2013. Developed markets, however, will continue to be weighed down by the eurozone crisis and grow by just 2%.
But which of the media channels will see this growth? Online advertising will see most of it, driven by ‘rapid development in social media and online video’. ZenithOptimedia forecast online advertising to grow by 14.6% in 2013, while traditional media will grow by 1.7%.
“Advertisers are willing to increase their budgets wherever they can achieve a strong return on investment,” says Steve King, Global Chief Executive Officer for ZenithOptimedia Group. “This means that developing markets, social media and online video are all growing rapidly, supporting continued expansion in global ad expenditure despite stagnation in the eurozone.”
ZentithOptimedia also identify what they view as the main risks to growth in 2013. The US fiscal cliff (automatic increases in tax and reductions in public spending that come into effect in January) and the potential for further conflict in the Middle East (which would lead to higher oil prices).
However, on the upside, the agency say the general consensus among economic forecasters is that the global economy will see some more growth over the next three years. The IMF predicts nominal GDP growth will rise from 5.6% in 2012 to 6.9% in 2015 (in the countries included in our forecasts, converted into US dollars at average market exchange rates for 2011).